- ~1973 oil shock: prices roughly quadrupled after the embargo (from ~$3 to ~$12/bbl).
- ~1986 glut: prices fell sharply below ~$10/bbl amid oversupply.
- July 2008 peak: Brent and WTI near record highs (~$147/bbl).
- 2014-16 collapse: Brent dropped from >$100 to below ~$30/bbl.
- April 2020 COVID crash: WTI futures went negative (~-$37/bbl); Brent also plunged sharply.
- 2022 post-Ukraine invasion: Brent averaged near ~$100/bbl.
- (WTI trend 2000-2024): WTI was ~$39.25/bbl (2020) → ~$94.58 (2022) → ~$75.87 (2024).
- 2025 average (EIA/analyst forecasts): Brent ≈ $68-69/bbl, WTI ≈ $64-65/bbl.
- ~2026 volatility: Oil prices remain highly sensitive to supply growth, OPEC+ decisions, demand uncertainty, and Middle East geopolitical risks.
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Third-party near-term crude oil price forecasts & oil price predictions
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), global oil inventories are expected to remain under pressure in the near term due to disruptions affecting Middle East supply and transportation routes.
The EIA forecasts Brent crude prices averaging around $106 per barrel in June 2026, before gradually declining as supply conditions improve. The agency expects Brent to average approximately $89 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, with further moderation projected beyond 2026 as production recovers and inventories rebuild. (Source: EIA, 12 May 2026)
According to a Reuters survey of energy analysts, oil price forecasts for 2026 were revised higher as energy flows continue to recover slowly following disruptions in the Middle East.
Analysts expect Brent crude to average approximately $66 per barrel in 2026, up from previous forecasts, reflecting ongoing supply risks and a slower-than-expected normalisation of global energy flows. However, forecasters continue to expect supply growth and recovering production to limit the upside over the medium term. (Source: Reuters, 29 May 2026)
According to Goldman Sachs, the key risk for oil prices in 2026 is demand destruction rather than supply shortages. While geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have supported prices, Goldman believes sustained price gains may be limited if higher energy costs weaken global consumption.
The bank expects Brent crude to average around $90 per barrel in Q4 2026, while warning that slower economic growth and weaker demand could weigh on prices if geopolitical risks ease. At the same time, any prolonged disruption to Middle East energy flows could keep prices elevated and increase volatility. (Source: Business Insider, citing Goldman Sachs research, 1 June 2026)
According to the International Monetary Fund, oil prices remain broadly in line with the organisation's baseline outlook despite recent geopolitical tensions.
The IMF noted that while prices have experienced short-term volatility, the market has so far avoided the severe disruptions that would materially alter its April 2026 economic projections. This suggests that current oil prices remain consistent with expectations of moderate global growth and a gradual rebalancing of energy markets. (Source: Reuters, 4 June 2026)
Drivers & risks for short-term oil prices
Several factors are expected to influence oil prices in the near term:
- Geopolitical developments in the Middle East and their impact on global energy flows.
- OPEC+ production decisions and compliance levels.
- U.S. shale output and non-OPEC supply growth.
- Global economic growth and oil demand trends.
- Inventory levels and shipping disruptions.
- Market sentiment and speculative positioning.
- Read long term predictions such as Crude Oil Price forecast 2030
Key takeaways
- Oil prices remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments and supply disruptions.
- Reuters analysts expect 2026 oil prices to remain supported by a slow recovery in global energy flows.
- Goldman Sachs believes demand risks could become a larger driver than supply risks if prices remain elevated.
- The IMF considers current oil prices broadly consistent with its baseline economic outlook.
- The EIA expects prices to remain elevated in the near term before moderating later in 2026 as supply conditions improve.
- Volatility is likely to remain high as markets balance geopolitical risks against longer-term supply growth.
Overall, the near-term outlook remains constructive for oil prices, but expectations for increased supply and potential demand headwinds suggest that sustained
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FAQ
Geopolitics, OPEC+, and U.S. shale production, global demand, inventories, and market sentiment/speculation.
Escalation of conflicts, sudden supply shocks, weak demand, and speculative volatility.
Oversupply can limit gains even amid geopolitical risks, while strong demand or falling inventories can push prices higher.